2027 Rent Increase Forecast: A look at the first 7 months

2027 will be the second year under Quebec's new rent increase calculation formula. This formula, far more mechanical than before, means most of the result is already known in advance: the components are fixed, the weightings are set, and the variables are limited. In fact, apart from the amount of the 2026 bills, nearly all the rates used in the calculations are already known.

But one essential element can still shift the final result: the average annual variation of Quebec's general Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the past three years. This is the figure that, each year, can slightly move the final percentage.

Why does the CPI matter?
Previously, the TAL used a percentage; the CPI now replaces the data that used to be part of the method. Before, the TAL applied a specific fluctuation percentage to the following expenses: electricity, gas, heating oil and other energy sources, maintenance, services, management fees, and net income.

All of these calculations have been replaced by the CPI calculation. What changes is actual inflation, as measured by the CPI (Consumer Price Index). For 2027, we therefore need to look at:
- the 2024 CPI,
- the 2025 CPI,
- the 2026 CPI.

Now, at the time of writing, we already know the first seven months of 2026, which allows for a mid-year projection, though it will continue to evolve over the coming months.

2027 CPI: an estimated forecast of around 2.4%
Based on the data available for the first seven months of 2026, the three-year moving average puts the estimate for the CPI used in the 2027 calculation at around 2.4%.

This means that, if things remain similar over the last months of 2026, the 2027 CPI-based increase will be close to this figure.

This calculation remains important to carry out, since for certain elements the new method still maintains a calculation based on major building works at a fixed rate of 5%, as well as a calculation that will factor in the difference between two years of expenses for school taxes, municipal taxes, and insurance.

Because your calculations remain specific to your building, the Quebec Landlords Association (APQ) continues to hold its annual "APQ Rent-Setting Clinic" every year.