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2013-2014 Housing Market Outlook (Province Of Quebec)

2013-2014 Housing Market Outlook (Province Of Quebec)

According to the latest forecasts conducted by Canada Mortgage and  Housing  Corporation  (CMHC),  recently  slower  economic  growth  will  reduce  demand  of existing and new homes in Quebec this  year. Moreover, easing resale markets and relatively high inventories of new dwellings will significantly lower housing starts in 2013. " This being said, still favourable borrowing conditions and demographic trends will support housing demand into 2014, at which time a strengthening economy and tightening resale markets will energize both the resale and new housing markets," said Kevin Hughes, CMHC Regional economist for the province of Quebec

In 2013, moderate job growth, the continued easing of the resale market and the trend toward multi-family dwelling will again reduce single starts and translate into a total of 14,200 single detached homes  started. In 2014, a tighter resale market will bring some support and result in 14,500  single  starts.  The  trend  toward  the  multi-family  market  segment  is  explained  by  its relative affordability, the changing needs of an aging population and by densification trends.

Fuelled  by  the  popularity  of  condominium  apartments,  supply  in  this  market  segment  has increased significantly. As a result of three years of sustained construction from 2010 to 2012, market  conditions  in  this  market  have  eased  significantly.  Starts  of  multi-family  dwellings  will thus decrease considerably this year. Multiple starts will descend below the 25,000 level in 2013 and rise above the 26,000 mark in 2014.

While  holding  steady  in  2012,  sales  recorded  by  Centris® have  been  recently  declining  as  a result  of  the  overall  economic  context  discussed  previously.  Despite  a  certain  rebound  in  the second half of this year, resales will come in at a lower level this year.  For 2013, 72,400 such transactions  are  forecast.  As  buying  conditions  improve,  total  resales  will  be  back  in  growth mode next year. In total, 76,500 Centris® sales are forecast for 2014.

Relatively lower demand for resale homes, combined with rising supply, has taken pressure off price growth in recent quarters and should continue to do so throughout this coming year. With a return to more balanced conditions, price growth in the resale market will continue to moderate in 2013. The average price recorded by Centris® will reach $271,200 in 2013 and $274,200 next year.

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Québec Landlords Association

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