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According  to  the  latest  forecasts  conducted  by  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC),  Quebec housing starts will amount to 37,600 units in 2014 and 38,700 units in 2015.

"In Quebec, moderate economic and employment growth will hold back demand for existing and new  homes  in  2014  and  2015.  In  addition,  relatively  high  inventories  of  new  and  existing dwellings will constrain the number of housing starts. The expected levels of demand and supply will translate into marginal price growth in most markets," said Kevin Hughes, CMHC Regional
economist for the province of Quebec.

Starts  of single-detached homes  will decline to the 12,100 level in 2014. As the resale market begins  to  tighten,  demand  for  new  single-detached  homes  will  increase,  and  translate  into 13,300 starts next year.

After coming back down last year, to a  level that is more in line with the demographic trends, multiple unit housing starts will record similar levels this year and next. This market segment will continue  to  be  supported  by  its  relative  lower  price  in  comparison  to  new  single-detached homes. Further growth will be held back by relatively high levels of supply of new and resale
housing, which will limit the need for additional building. Starts of multiple unit dwellings will be at 25,500 units in 2014 and 25,400 in 2015.

Sales  of  existing  houses  recorded  by  Centris® should  remain  stable  this  year,  in  line  with moderate employment growth. Following a certain decline in the last two quarters, resales will recover and reach the 71,600 level this year. Like the rest of the country, buying conditions  will be  somewhat  impeded  by  the  eventual  slightly  higher  interest  rates.  Nonetheless,  73,700
Centris® resales will be achieved next year as more robust labour markets push up demand.

With lower demand and higher supply, prices of resale homes will post marginal growth during the forecast horizon. A gradual return to more balanced market conditions will keep price growth between  the  one  and  two  per  cent  mark  this  year  and  next.  As  a  result,  the  average  price recorded by Centris® will reach $266,300 this year and $270,000 in 2015.

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Québec Landlords Association

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