As in most large metropolitan areas covered by the recent CMHC census, the vacancy rate has continued to climb for the Gatineau area and reached 3.1% in 2005. By comparison with other regional metropolitan areas, the rate is 1.2% in Sherbrooke; 1.4% in Québec City; 1.5% in Trois-Rivières; 2.0 % in Montréal; and finally 4.5 % in the Saguenay.
Mrs. Honorice Youmbissi, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Analyst (CMHC) for the Gatineau Region revealed these figures before APQ members at a recent conference.
Mrs. Youmbissi also gave a brief overview of the housing situation nationally and provincially stressing obviously the Gatineau region following results of the October 2005 survey.
Half of Gatineau’s rental industry is composed of two bedroom units. Twelve percent of dwellings have three bedrooms or more, 6% bachelor studios, and finally, 26% of dwellings have one bedroom.
Vacancy is climbing
The vacancy rates of apartment buildings have climbed in Gatineau for a third consecutive year. In 2002 it was 0.5% and slowly climbed to 1.2% in 2003; 2.1% in 2004 and finally 3.1% in 2005.
The vacancy rate has climbed for two bedroom units. However, bachelor studios have the highest current vacancy rate at 4.1% over the last twelve months.
Recently-built dwellings have the highest vacancy rate of 5.1%, or higher, in 2005 for buildings built since 2000.
The Hull area is in first place for a 3.4% vacancy rate in 2005, compared to 3.1% for Aylmer; 3.0% for Gatineau; and 2.0% for neighbouring areas.
The open market has run its course, and this applies also to Gatineau. In fact, 2005 rental increases have stagnated below the inflation rate (-0.4%), and this should adjust itself in 2006 below the inflation rate for increases of 1.3%. This should apply to two bedroom units where the highest increase was observed in 2003 with a 6.7% increase.
Average rent
Areas bordering the Outaouais region are still the least expensive for tenants. In 2005, their average rent for two-bedroom units was $496 per month. In comparison, this same rent would have been $671 per month for Hull; $699 for Aylmer; $669 for Gatineau; and, $920 for Ottawa.
It should be pointed out that there is always a considerable gap between Ottawa and Gatineau at an average of $260 in 2005 for a two-bedroom unit. The average for a three-bedroom unit is even greater costing a tenant in Ottawa an average of $379 more over the last year.
The vacancy rate is very high when rents of $900 or more for a two-bedroom unit are considered. It reached 13.9 % in 2005 and should continue to climb in 2006.
In the elderly residence construction sector, prices have not yet been fully exploited. However, builders should not “tear down the doors” of these new building sites. This sector, contrary to what has happened in Montréal, is still not fully exploited. In addition, the net migratory trend continues to climb in Gatineau and has been doing so every year since 1999.
Forecasts
Mrs. Youmbissi also made some short-term forecasts for 2006 during which the rental of rental units being built should remain at around 500. Half of these will be earmarked for residences of elderly people. This is still an under-developed market in the region.
In her opinion, there will be a slowing down of access to property; a weak increase in the price of co-ownerships; better employment opportunities, and sustained immigration.
Another fact is the very low vacancy rate in residences for the elderly in Gatineau with figures that date back to 2004. This shows that the Ottawa market, among others, is simply saturated for this type of construction, whereas the vacancy rate reached the infamous level of 9.8%. In comparison, Gatineau has seen a very low vacancy rate of 0.6%. In other metropolitan areas such as: Montréal, Saguenay, and Shebrooke it was 2.9%; 3.5% for Québec City; and finally 4.5% for Trois-Rivières.
The forecasts for 2006? The vacancy rate should reach 3.2% in 2006 and 3.0% in 2007. The average increase for an apartment with two bedrooms could be about +2% in 2006 and +2.5% in 2007.
A residence construction BOOM for the elderly in Gatineau
